A.J. Preller describes his role managing the San Diego Padres as a highly desirable position. But could this perception be misleading?
A.J. Preller is known for his clever strategies. As the head of baseball operations, his dynamic approach has shaped the Padres over the last decade.
Look at what he achieved! Preller secured a trade for star player Fernando Tatis Jr.
Just like that! He managed to sign superstar Manny Machado.
And magically! He brought in Juan Soto to bolster the lineup.
Even just this past summer, despite financial constraints and a somewhat bare farm system, Preller conjured up trades for Mason Miller, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and Freddy Fermin.
When one magical tactic doesn't yield the desired results, Preller’s quick to explore new options. Now, with Mike Shildt’s unexpected retirement on Monday, he finds himself in search of a new manager for the Padres, and like a skilled magician, his pitch is filled with excitement and a touch of misdirection.
"I genuinely believe this is an incredibly appealing job," Preller stated during a conference call on Tuesday.
He highlighted the Padres' outstanding bullpen and emphasized the solid group of position players they have. He praised the stadium atmosphere, the supportive fanbase, and the thriving city. Plus, he pointed out that the Padres have reached the playoffs four times in six years, doing so under three different managers.
"This illustrates the strength of our roster and organization," Preller remarked.
However, it’s worth noting that none of those managers lasted longer than two years, and it’s crucial to take into account the ages of the current key position players and the overall structure of their contracts. Plus, let’s not overlook the concerning state of the starting rotation.
And wait, there’s more: don’t be alarmed by the unsettled ownership matters either—there’s absolutely nothing to worry about there.
As we look ahead to this offseason, eight Major League Baseball teams find themselves in search of new managers, and the Padres' vacancy stands out as the hardest to predict.
Teams like the Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins are clearly in rebuilding phases. In contrast, the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves present immediate opportunities for quick and possibly sustainable success. But what about the Padres?
Preller’s claims hold merit—the bullpen is impressive, and the core of position players is established. There’s passion and potential, and Preller himself is eager to compete.
Yet, an honest examination reveals serious doubts about the long-term sustainability of this endeavor and raises questions about who might end up facing the consequences when things inevitably go awry.
The Padres boast standout athletes such as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, yet they’re also burdened with hefty contracts that complicate the situation.
A roster filled with talent...
The Padres still have a window of opportunity. They've managed to achieve at least 89 wins in three of the last four seasons, indicating they are not transitioning into a rebuilding phase anytime soon.
Tatis Jr., who is in his prime, is performing exceptionally well. As he approaches his 27th birthday in January, he has already completed five years of a staggering 14-year contract, displaying a talent that earned him a 6.1 fWAR this past season. Jackson Merrill, who will be 23 in April, marks the beginning of a promising nine-year, team-friendly extension. Both players are crucial to the team's future.
At 33, Machado is still considered an All-Star. Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth will also return next season alongside Fermin and Laureano, further bolstering the team's lineup. Although improvements could be made to enhance the team's offensive capabilities, it certainly isn't starting from scratch.
...yet burdened with long-term, expensive contracts
Machado, set to turn 34 in July, is under an extensive 11-year, $350 million deal that is backloaded, meaning he’ll be earning $35 million a year from 2027 to 2033—right around the time he'll be turning 35 during the 2027 season. Alongside his salary, he will also receive $5 million annually in signing bonuses throughout those years. While he remains an excellent hitter, his performance has noticeably dipped, with his OPS not reaching the .800 mark since 2022.
Bogaerts, who celebrated his 33rd birthday in October, has seen even worse offensive results over the past few seasons, recording his lowest fWAR since his rookie year at the age of 21. His contract extends all the way until he turns 41.
With five years remaining on Jake Cronenworth’s deal, the Padres find themselves with over $128 million committed for the year 2030—an amount comparable to the entire payroll of the Rockies—most of which is allocated to players who will be well into their late 30s by the time their contracts conclude. Although Preller is searching for a manager who can endure for ten years, the coming decade might prove to be quite daunting as those long-term contracts start to show signs of decay.
The bullpen is exceptional…
Any manager would be thrilled to lead a formidable bullpen, and the Padres have one that fits the bill.
Even if All-Star closer Robert Suarez decides to opt out, the Padres have Miller who could seamlessly fill the role. The expected returns of Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada bolster confidence, while rookies David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez have shown promise.
While bullpens can often be unpredictable, the Padres’ setup is among the most sustainable and reliable found in Major League Baseball. There’s potential for the team to explore using one of their depth options as a starter or even make trades to address other pressing needs. If a strong bullpen is a luxury, then the Padres' bullpen is akin to a five-star resort.
...but the starting rotation is lacking
To truly benefit from that robust bullpen, it’s essential to have a strong starting rotation in place, which is currently nonexistent. Though the Padres showcased a mediocre rotation during the regular season, injuries and other factors led to a weakened state by October, and it’s poised to face significant changes this offseason.
As Dylan Cease and Nestor Cortes head into free agency, it’s unlikely that Michael King will accept his mutual option. Both promising young starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek were traded at the deadline, while offseason acquisition Kyle Hart struggled, and mid-season addition JP Sears ended up playing in Triple A.
What remains is Nick Pivetta, a 32-year-old who enjoyed a breakout year, but his contract makes a striking jump from a $1 million salary in 2025 to a staggering $19 million in 2026. Yu Darvish, at 39, just faced his worst career performance with a 5.38 ERA, yet he is locked in for three more seasons with uncertainty about whether he will fulfill that commitment.
Joe Musgrove has two seasons left on his contract but will turn 33 in December and missed the entirety of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Randy Vásquez has yet to hit arbitration eligibility and logged 26 starts this season, but he is more suited for a back-end role, and the Padres held him back during the playoffs.
The Padres come equipped with both an aggressive front office and a proven history of spending...
Preller has navigated challenges like this in the past, employing a variety of methods. Best known for his trades, he has also spent money wisely, and the farm system has seen some development success, producing a number of solid relievers.
During Tuesday’s call, Preller reiterated his commitment to constructing a winning team, though his comments were predictably vague regarding the specific steps he plans to take in the pursuit of a third consecutive playoff appearance.
According to estimates from Roster Resource and Cots Contracts, the Padres currently hold a competitive balance payroll of $230 million for 2026, down from nearly $270 million in 2025 and above $290 million in 2023. Therefore, potential managers looking for immediate success should recognize that the situation is far from dire.
...but there are no guarantees that this will last
It’s only reasonable to question just how swiftly that competitive window may begin to close.
Preller finds himself in the final year of his contract after holding the position since 2014, with no guarantees he will continue without an extension. The farm system he currently oversees ranks among the weakest in baseball, limiting his options for trades and reducing the potential for impactful call-ups. Additionally, the ownership landscape has its complexities, as the widow of former owner Peter Seidler is pursuing a lawsuit against two of his brothers over control of the team.
Given the aging roster, extensive contractual obligations that extend beyond players’ prime years, and the uncertainty surrounding Preller’s future, the Padres head managerial role is laden with complexities. Even achieving success hasn’t ensured job security in the past—managers like Mike Shildt, Bob Melvin, and Jayce Tingler have all led the team to the postseason since 2020, yet each was dismissed after just two seasons.
So, what exactly is Preller looking for in his new manager? He mentioned the usual traits: baseball expertise, effective communication skills, and sound decision-making.
"I think it’s vital to have someone who can embrace expectations," Preller pointed out. "This is an authentic reality in this market."
For the future manager of the Padres, discerning between what is solid and what remains an illusion may prove to be the most crucial task of all.
