The Middle East is a region in flux, with Iran, Israel, and the United States rapidly shifting their roles and alliances. The recent events in Iran have sent shockwaves across the globe, leaving the population in a state of fear and grief. As we piece together the scattered accounts, it's clear that a brutal regime has unleashed an unprecedented crackdown, resulting in the tragic loss of thousands of lives.
But here's where it gets controversial: the changing geopolitics of the region have led to some unexpected alliances. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt, along with Israel, are now pressuring Donald Trump to avoid a military strike against a weakened Iran. This scenario would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
Self-interest and risk assessment are driving these decisions. For many Gulf nations, their long-standing alliance with the United States has been primarily motivated by their fear of Iran and its proxies. However, a pivotal moment occurred when Israel launched a strike against Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, last year. This action prompted a reevaluation of power dynamics and the true sources of threat in the region.
While Israel had already weakened Iran's influence through its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, the Doha strike was a direct and personal attack. It shifted the perception of aggression from Iran to Israel. This context is crucial when analyzing the recent developments.
The countries that intervened to prevent a US strike were not doing so out of concern for the Iranian people or support for the regime they despise. Their self-interest led them to believe that a strike would not bring about positive change and could only create chaos in Iran, potentially destabilizing the entire region and disrupting oil markets.
The Iranian people's plight was an afterthought in these calculations. Despite Iran's threats of retaliation, its diminished military capacity made such threats less credible. The focus was on preventing further chaos, even if it meant neglecting the needs of the Iranian population.
The limbo of the Iranian people: The regime appears intolerable, yet it remains seemingly unchallenged. Long-time observers of Iran suggest that the anti-imperialist, anti-Israeli, and anti-American sentiments that fueled the Iranian Revolution have faded with generational change. Most of the population is too young to remember the events of 1979.
Despite this, the Khamenei regime continues to espouse anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric, blaming US and Israeli influences for the massive protests across Iran. The question now is: What will Israel's next move be regarding Iran, and how will it impact the region?
Achieving meaningful change will be an uphill battle. The brutal crackdown on protesters, which has reportedly left thousands dead, has likely stifled the internal push for reform. The fact that the Trump administration was advised that a military strike might not succeed highlights the challenges ahead.
Israel's deep involvement in Iran, as demonstrated by its precise strike in July 2024 when it assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, raises questions about its ability to force a change in the regime's behavior. It remains to be seen if Israel can leverage its influence effectively.
Meanwhile, Gulf states are increasingly asserting their independence and taking on more prominent roles in the region. Their views and actions vary, as seen in the differing roles of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Republic in Yemen. These states recognize their economic and security interests lie in finding accommodations with Israel, even if they now view Israel with caution.
The issue of Palestine persists: While the dramas in Iran have sidelined this issue, the actions of Israel in Gaza and the West Bank remain a significant concern. The recent announcement of "phase two" of the Gaza ceasefire plan by the White House did little to inspire celebration, especially given the shortcomings of phase one.
Phase one resulted in the release of all living Israeli hostages and a de-escalation of Israeli attacks in Gaza, but more than 450 Palestinians have been killed since its implementation, according to the Hamas-run Health Authority. Israel continues to occupy around 50% of the strip, and its controlled territory has gradually expanded.
The aggression against Palestinians in the West Bank has escalated, and Israel has also seized land in Syria and Lebanon. The response to attacks on civilians in Iran and the occupied territories differs significantly. The ambiguous status of Gaza and the West Bank, compared to a sovereign nation like Iran, means that Israel's incursions are rarely viewed as an invasion. Yet the tens of thousands of civilian casualties are not recognized as Israeli civilians either.
Trump's foreign policy interventions suggest he may have lost interest in Gaza, believing he has "solved" the issue. As a result, the pragmatic politics of other regional players will become increasingly important. These nations have an interest in a proper settlement, as they are threatened by the continued existence of Hamas.
In conclusion, the roles of the US, Iran, and Israel in the Middle East have undergone profound changes in the past two years. How the regional neighbors respond to these shifts will be crucial in determining the future of both Iran and the Palestinians. Laura Tingle, ABC's Global Affairs Editor, highlights the complexity and uncertainty of this evolving landscape.
