If the early days of 2022 have been any indication, paper shortages and rising distribution costs are challenges that the industry will likely face throughout year. The seeds of the current problems were sown in the years of the pandemic, when sales of print books unexpectedly rose, increasing demand while people were leaving manufacturing jobs in droves that led to labor shortages in the printing and papermaking businesses.
Those were two of the main takeaways from last week’s webinar, “The Powerful Case for U.S. Book Manufacturing in the Face of Global Supply Chain Challenges, Paper Shortages, and Rising Distribution Costs,” moderated by Chris Lyons, president and publisher of Book Business, and featuring Jim Milliot, editorial director at Publishers Weekly; Bill Rojack, v-p of Midland Paper; and Matt Baehr, executive director at Book Manufacturers’ Institute. The program was sponsored by Canon Solutions America.
After Milliot summed how book sales grew in both 2020 and 2021, Rojack opened with a sobering statement: “I’ve been doing this for 25 years and I’ve never seen a market like this before.” While the paper market has always had cycles, Rojack said this is something different. “The paper business has been consolidating for years and will continue to consolidate,” he said, adding that the pandemic expedited the process.
Noting that book paper accounts for only about 5-7% of total paper market demand (including for catalogs and magazines), Rojack said that, despite an increase in demand by book publishers, overall paper demand has dropped 50% in recent years. To compensate for that drop, many mills converted to other products where they can make money—particularly the growing demand for corrugated boxes and other packaging materials. Giving current trends, Rojack said that the paper crunch for books is likely to get worse before it gets better, and he noted that plants that have spent millions of dollars converting their factories are not going to retool back to paper even if the packaging market becomes saturated—something some experts believe could happen.
Rojack said book publishers are going to need to make some tough choices. “We’ve been spoiled,” he said. “Too many trim sizes and too many colors, and simply too many options.” He added that publishers should be in constant contact with their paper and print providers, discussing the options that remain available and shouldn’t even bring up prices. Rojack pointed to a slide that he said summed up the situation the best, which noted that the way publishers chose a sheet of paper for their books in the past may need to change. “Price and look and feel will always be important, but they need to be balanced by what works best for your paper manufactures and your print providers. If those parties are not show how represented in your initial production meetings, they need to be,” he said.
Some solutions were offered and many of them involve longer term changes rather than short term band-aids. One involves automation and streamlining the process. “Historically, the goal was print enough books to get cheapest unit cost possible; then it became trying to get as much narrow focus on just-in-time delivery and having everything there,” Baehr explained. “Now with a supply chain crunch it’s about finding the best balance.”
One solution might be print-on-demand, which solves many inventory and time issues, though retains a high cost per unit. “This situation creates an interesting dialog with publishers because it assures that there will have to be a standardization of trim sizes, paper usage, cover stocks, and more,” Baehr said.
“Since Covid, the Inkjet platform has grown like crazy,” Rojack noted. “I fully expected it and it’ll continue to grow. The future for new models is in digital printing.” This brings automation into the conversation, though it will require more of the aforementioned standardization of trim sizes, cover stock, and more. For automation to take hold, something will need to change.
Ultimately, the labor and paper shortages are not going away soon and in some cases publishers have become more proactive in bringing their printing back stateside. “They are taking responsibility for consolidation, realizing they should have done things differently and supported domestic printers better,” said Milliot.“This is more than a market cycle,” Rojack added. “It is a structural transformational sea change that happened so much faster than anybody expected because of Covid.”
FAQs
Forecasting 2024
This gave paper manufacturers room to catch up on inventories. We believe that through the rest of 2024, paper ordering should return to normal. But, with a caveat. Should business needs sharply accelerate, we could see the return of overly tight markets due to reduced manufacturing capacities.
Is there currently a paper shortage? ›
Yes, there is a paper shortage in 2022 for coated and uncoated papers. Manufacturers, wholesalers, marketing companies, and printers continue to experience difficulties securing materials and producing goods for a number of reasons.
Why is there a shortage of printer paper? ›
Paper mill closures, supply chain disruptions, and shifting demand patterns have converged to create a perfect storm. The consequences ripple through the industry, affecting printers, publishers and paper mills alike.
What is the definition of paper shortage? ›
The pulp that paper mills use to produce printable paper has become scarce and more expensive, making it hard for print companies to operate at their normal capacity.
What shortages are coming in the 2024 list? ›
10 Foods in the Food Shortage Of 2024
- Butter. Last year, you probably noticed the high price of butter caused by lower-than-expected milk production and worker shortages at several U.S. dairy farms. ...
- Oranges. ...
- Corn. ...
- Flour. ...
- Bread. ...
- Champagne. ...
- Beer. ...
- Eggs.
We're expecting even more trouble with not having enough food in 2024 because of things like climate change and problems in different areas. Many of the products Britons use could be affected by floods and droughts caused by the climate crisis.
Is there a paper shortage for printing books? ›
With container costs having tripled over the course of the pandemic, and with 20% of global container capacity still stuck on the ocean, one thing is clear: the publishing supply chain problems in general, and print paper shortages in particular, are not going away until 2023 at the earliest.
Is the paper industry in decline? ›
The AF&PA reports that U.S. paper and paperboard production fell by 7.2 percent in 2023, with declines in all categories except tissue.
Is there a high demand for paper? ›
The global consumption of paper and paperboard totaled 417 million tons in 2021. Consumption is projected to continue rising over the coming decade to reach 476 million tons by 2032. Packaging accounts for the largest share of global paper and paperboard production.
Is paper becoming obsolete? ›
But it's unlikely that paper will ever be totally obsolete.
It provides a sense of certainty and reliability that can't ever be fully matched by digital information. And it allows for an infinite flexibility of input that digital technologies can mimic, but only at much higher cost.
First, there's the supply side. Globally, paper mills have been closing for years, reducing sources for many standard printing and publishing grades. Some mills have also converted from commercial printing grades to packaging grades, further reducing overall paper supply. Second, there's the cost of manufacturing.
What is a good substitute for reflex paper? ›
Double A paper is an excellent alternative to Reflex paper, offering businesses and individuals a high-quality, environmentally friendly, and cost-effective paper product.
What is the main cause of shortage? ›
A shortage occurs when the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied at the market price. There are three main causes of shortage—increase in demand, decrease in supply, and government intervention. Shortage types can include food, goods, shelter, water, energy, healthcare, and jobs.
Why did the toilet paper shortage happen? ›
Many attribute the shortage to disruptions in the supply chain. But it's actually a result of panic-buying, according to Dr. Ronalds Gonzalez, an Assistant Professor in the Department of Forest Biomaterials.
What happens when there is a shortage of something? ›
A shortage will cause businesses to raise the price and quantity of a product. This may cause the business to lose some customers, but if enough are kept, the price increase will allow the business to achieve equilibrium.
What is the paper market in 2024? ›
The value added per capita in the Pulp & Paper market is projected to amount to US$32.9 in 2024. The value added margin in the Pulp & Paper market is projected to amount to 28% in 2024. Output in the Pulp & Paper market is projected to amount to US$0.9tn in 2024.
Why are paper products so expensive in 2024? ›
Pulp Costs: Increased by approximately 15% due to supply chain disruptions and higher demand for corrugated packaging materials. The Producer Price Index for wood pulp rose significantly in 2024 (FRED) (Pulp & Paper – June 21st).
What is the future of the paper industry? ›
The future of the paper industry in India is also being shaped by technological advancements and a focus on sustainability. Innovations in production processes are enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and improving the quality of paper products.
Will there be paper in the future? ›
What is the future of paper? Paper has been around for centuries, and its future might not be as secure as one would think. With the rise of technology, many people are choosing digital options over paper ones. Even though paper still has its advantages, it might not be the go-to choice in the future.
