Get ready for a game-changer in the energy industry! Africa is poised to take center stage in global high-impact oil and gas drilling, and the year 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal one.
The upstream sector is buzzing with momentum, and high-impact wildcat drilling is expected to reach new heights. Last year, success rates soared to an impressive 38%, up from 23% in 2024, and discovered volumes increased by a whopping 53% to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). That's a significant boost for the industry!
But here's where it gets interesting: high-impact wells are designated based on various factors, including the potential size of resources, their ability to open up new hydrocarbon plays in frontier basins, and their significance to operators. In 2026, these wells are expected to drive exploration even further, with a global focus on 42 such wells. And guess what? Africa is leading the charge, accounting for a remarkable 40% of planned high-impact exploration wells. The Atlantic margin is a key player here, with exploration activities concentrated in the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa. Africa's role in global high-impact drilling is undeniable.
Rystad Energy's outlook for 2026 highlights a clear shift towards ultra-deepwater and frontier exploration. Ultra-deepwater wells make up around 60% of planned drilling, with major companies taking the lead, followed by national oil companies (NOCs) and international NOCs (INOCs). Most wells will target frontier regions, while a small percentage will focus on basins with prior discoveries that could become hydrocarbon hotspots. Africa's contribution is crucial, as all onshore high-impact drilling in 2026 is expected to take place on the continent, with the exception of the Greenland well, which will test the frontier Jameson Land.
So, why is Africa in the spotlight? Well, it's a combination of geological potential and the prospect of large, commercially significant discoveries. In a tightening global supply environment, Africa offers a unique opportunity for operators seeking long-life resources. Aatisha Mahajan, Head of Exploration at Rystad Energy's Oil & Gas Research, puts it perfectly: "Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries."
Outside Africa, Asia is also making its mark with eight high-impact wells. Indonesia leads the way with four, followed by India and Malaysia with two each. Between 2021 and 2025, these countries awarded most of the region's new acreage, driven by offshore blocks. Onshore awards, on the other hand, were dominated by Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China, reflecting Asia's diverse exploration landscape.
Over the past decade, Asia has recorded approximately 18 billion boe of conventional hydrocarbon discoveries, with gas accounting for a significant portion. However, discovery volumes have been concentrated in a few countries, such as China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. While Asia remains a key player in hydrocarbon exploration, the opportunities are becoming more concentrated in established areas. This suggests that future high-impact growth may depend on unlocking less mature basins or technically challenging fields.
As of 2025, the year stands as the weakest in the past decade in terms of new volume additions, with total discoveries hovering around 1 billion boe. Oil has dominated the volumes added, primarily due to discoveries in Malaysia and Vietnam. Offshore discoveries accounted for the majority of volumes, with the main producing countries leading the way. There's still room for upward revision as more information becomes available.
In the West, North America's exploration performance has taken a hit since 2022, with yearly discovered volumes dropping below the previous decade-low of 750 million boe seen in 2018. Discoveries in Canada and Mexico have stalled, leaving the US Gulf of America as the primary source of new volumes. The region's finds remain oil-weighted and concentrated in mature, heavily explored basins. In 2025, total discoveries fell to around 238 million barrels, with Mexico and the US Gulf of America contributing the majority of finds.
Overall, the continued reliance on mature basins and declining discovery volumes suggests limited upside for conventional exploration in North America. Without access to new plays or significant improvements in exploration success, the region may continue to see incremental, oil-weighted additions rather than groundbreaking discoveries.
So, what's your take on this global shift in high-impact drilling? Do you think Africa's dominance will continue, or will other regions surprise us? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's spark a discussion on the future of energy exploration!
